These are traditionally the days when you spread the full year forecast of the future.
Who has had the patience to follow this year by reading the notes, more or less regularly, I would expect a forecast released (or Outlook, using as said) on what could be expected by working in the financial markets during the coming months .
I do not mind astrology.
I firmly convinced that the forecasts, especially in finance, serving mainly to confirm the assumptions made a priori and the consequent expectations that this entails the risk of distancing from what is our objective to build an investment strategy that can to generate a return, despite the limitations of the risk profile that we can tolerate, in line with changes in the prevailing economic environment.
In this enlightening as I believe written by Thich Nhat Hanh, so not an economist but a 'simple' monaco Vietnamese Buddhist:
"the best way to prepare for the future is worrying of this, since we know that this is a consequence of the past, then the future will be a result of this. All that we can be responsible is the present moment, which is the only one who can change. Take care of this means taking care of the future. "
Following a few brief thoughts on what, in my opinion, is this: MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT
We lived (are living?) Without a doubt the deepest recession crossed by the global economy after World War II so that several economists have adopted the term 'Great Depression'.
Giungono these positive signs to be considered that, although it is premature to talk of recovery, the worst is over and the hypothesis of relapse has been averted, GDP growth turned positive almost everywhere and, in some industrialized countries, we are also seeing a recovery in employment (Australia , Japan, Germany).
The recovery of Germany is an opportunity for the Italian economy, in itself unable to create the conditions for ending the crisis as more than a quarter of our GDP is from exports of which Germany is the main recipient.
The financial system is still extremely fragile and exposed to international shocks, such as the recent crisis Dubai has shown us: This inefficiency is reflected in the ability to access credit crisis that is putting not only businesses but families that are forced to drastically reduce consumption.
aspects to be monitored over the next few months are the high default rate that is attributable to more than 40% of U.S. subprime mortgages and about 15% first mortgage (that is granted to borrowers with good ability to repay loans received ) and the high unemployment rate, which could create an explosive mix for the world economy. BOND MARKET
The past year has seen drastically reduced the yields of government bonds is both corporate bonds, the spread between yields on government bonds and corporate bond yields, which was abnormally enlarged in 2008 on fears of potential failures, it was gradually reduced in step with the prices of credit default Swap (ie insurance against the risk of bond issuers default).
While this reduction is to be viewed positively as a gradual normalization of conditions in the bond market and reduced risk of failure, the other presents evidence of a market devoid of attractive proposals in terms of remuneration due to yield almost cleared of short-term and the next lows for longer maturities.
The biggest concern in its government securities by those European countries that may be adversely affected by the impact of anti-crisis measures on its public debt with potential negative repercussions on the euro.
STOCK MARKET
In 2009, the MSCI World Index in local currency, rose by 30%.
However, during the first months of the year we saw a sudden drop in prices followed by an equally strong recovery.
The uptrend is formally still in place despite some signs of weakening, was first powered by the assessments reached some interesting markets during the months of minimum from March to April and then supported by technical and financial phenomena (unattractiveness of bond yields that has encouraged the gradual return to class Assett risky carry trade).
Unfortunately we have not evidence that there are changes in this scenario: the market valuations are reasonable in terms of prospective profits (that is yet to be realized), while in terms of operating earnings valuations are definitely out of the norm.
The main concern is precisely the concerns that accompany the sustainability of growth of corporate profits: so far we have seen results above analysts' expectations achieved through heavy staff cuts and restructuring costs, tax policies implemented by governments. If we also finally see a recovery in sales and sales could also remove the last reserves that lead us to an approach to equity markets positive but cautious.
RAW MATERIALS
The recovery in industrial output, especially in Southeast Asia, said the recovery in prices of energy raw materials (oil went from $ 36 per barrel to $ 73) and industrial (+147% increase in the copper), the rise has been facilitated not only by the recovery in demand but also by a certain lack in the offer caused by a slowdown in mining.
in recent sessions has also taken the sustained rise in gold prices, as repeatedly stressed, not only by the dynamics of industrial (urgent increase in demand for the production of jewelry and luxury goods which does not meet a mining in decline since 2000) but also by requirement of foreign exchange as demonstrated by the frenetic activity of various central banks to increase the diversification of its gold reserves are accumulating large quantities.
That said, I can only express my most sincere congratulations.
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