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GREETINGS!

These are traditionally the days when you spread the full year forecast of the future.

Who has had the patience to follow this year by reading the notes, more or less regularly, I would expect a forecast released (or Outlook, using as said) on what could be expected by working in the financial markets during the coming months .

I do not mind astrology.

I firmly convinced that the forecasts, especially in finance, serving mainly to confirm the assumptions made a priori and the consequent expectations that this entails the risk of distancing from what is our objective to build an investment strategy that can to generate a return, despite the limitations of the risk profile that we can tolerate, in line with changes in the prevailing economic environment.

In this enlightening as I believe written by Thich Nhat Hanh, so not an economist but a 'simple' monaco Vietnamese Buddhist:

"the best way to prepare for the future is worrying of this, since we know that this is a consequence of the past, then the future will be a result of this. All that we can be responsible is the present moment, which is the only one who can change. Take care of this means taking care of the future. "


Following a few brief thoughts on what, in my opinion, is this: MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT



We lived (are living?) Without a doubt the deepest recession crossed by the global economy after World War II so that several economists have adopted the term 'Great Depression'.
Giungono these positive signs to be considered that, although it is premature to talk of recovery, the worst is over and the hypothesis of relapse has been averted, GDP growth turned positive almost everywhere and, in some industrialized countries, we are also seeing a recovery in employment (Australia , Japan, Germany).

The recovery of Germany is an opportunity for the Italian economy, in itself unable to create the conditions for ending the crisis as more than a quarter of our GDP is from exports of which Germany is the main recipient.

The financial system is still extremely fragile and exposed to international shocks, such as the recent crisis Dubai has shown us: This inefficiency is reflected in the ability to access credit crisis that is putting not only businesses but families that are forced to drastically reduce consumption.

aspects to be monitored over the next few months are the high default rate that is attributable to more than 40% of U.S. subprime mortgages and about 15% first mortgage (that is granted to borrowers with good ability to repay loans received ) and the high unemployment rate, which could create an explosive mix for the world economy. BOND MARKET



The past year has seen drastically reduced the yields of government bonds is both corporate bonds, the spread between yields on government bonds and corporate bond yields, which was abnormally enlarged in 2008 on fears of potential failures, it was gradually reduced in step with the prices of credit default Swap (ie insurance against the risk of bond issuers default).

While this reduction is to be viewed positively as a gradual normalization of conditions in the bond market and reduced risk of failure, the other presents evidence of a market devoid of attractive proposals in terms of remuneration due to yield almost cleared of short-term and the next lows for longer maturities.

The biggest concern in its government securities by those European countries that may be adversely affected by the impact of anti-crisis measures on its public debt with potential negative repercussions on the euro.

STOCK MARKET

In 2009, the MSCI World Index in local currency, rose by 30%.
However, during the first months of the year we saw a sudden drop in prices followed by an equally strong recovery.

The uptrend is formally still in place despite some signs of weakening, was first powered by the assessments reached some interesting markets during the months of minimum from March to April and then supported by technical and financial phenomena (unattractiveness of bond yields that has encouraged the gradual return to class Assett risky carry trade).

Unfortunately we have not evidence that there are changes in this scenario: the market valuations are reasonable in terms of prospective profits (that is yet to be realized), while in terms of operating earnings valuations are definitely out of the norm.

The main concern is precisely the concerns that accompany the sustainability of growth of corporate profits: so far we have seen results above analysts' expectations achieved through heavy staff cuts and restructuring costs, tax policies implemented by governments. If we also finally see a recovery in sales and sales could also remove the last reserves that lead us to an approach to equity markets positive but cautious.

RAW MATERIALS

The recovery in industrial output, especially in Southeast Asia, said the recovery in prices of energy raw materials (oil went from $ 36 per barrel to $ 73) and industrial (+147% increase in the copper), the rise has been facilitated not only by the recovery in demand but also by a certain lack in the offer caused by a slowdown in mining.
in recent sessions has also taken the sustained rise in gold prices, as repeatedly stressed, not only by the dynamics of industrial (urgent increase in demand for the production of jewelry and luxury goods which does not meet a mining in decline since 2000) but also by requirement of foreign exchange as demonstrated by the frenetic activity of various central banks to increase the diversification of its gold reserves are accumulating large quantities.

That said, I can only express my most sincere congratulations.

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range expected for the month of December

Although with some delay, this is the range within which I expect will fluctuate the prices of major stock indices during the month of December:

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Financial crisis in Greece, what is the outlook?

After the crisis of Dubai, which is still far from being resolved The spotlight has been 'claimed' by both countries in the Euro: Greece and Spain have suffered a 'downgrading' (derating) the creditworthiness of the now infamous by rating agencies. If

for Spain it was just a credit watch negative (ie a kind of 'special observation') caused by the fear that the economic crisis persists more long as in other European countries, Greece has been a real drop in ratings from A-to BBB by Fitch reasoned with the worrying situation of the Hellenic Public Debt which is approximately 12% of GDP .

Greece and Spain, along with Italy and Portugal, since the beginning of the economic crisis have been brought together in so-called PIGS countries, wanting to show us the even the acronym and the European Union, whose financial position is the worst quality than the rich countries of the euro.

To see how financial markets interpret the current economic situation in these four countries have decided to compare the performance prices of government issues with what is regarded in Europe, the risk-free investment: the German Bund. To do this I chose five bonds as fairly homogeneous coupon (between 4.25 and 4.75) and a deadline (June-August 2014).

is the trend of the reference.

Germany 2014, coupon 4.25%, 2.23% yield



As you can see the price of the German bund is located at the maximum period after falling by about one percentage point over the month of October.

quite similar trend for the Italian BTP albeit with a more marked deterioration starting in December:

Italy in 2014, 4.25% coupon, yield 2.71%



Slightly different trends in government issues in Portugal and Spain where prices after fluctuated within a fairly wide range (0.75 bps) showed a rather sudden drop in recent sessions, indicating a growing nervousness among investors.

Portugal 2014, 4.375% coupon, yield 2.77%



Spain 2014, coupon 4.75%, 2.58% yield



However, yields on three titles are the same sign that the market 'perceived' level of risk similar to Italy, Portugal and Spain.

different matter with regard to Greece: The performance of the stock (with the simultaneous increase in yields) clearly indicates that the market considers it possible, in practical terms, the existence of a default risk of the country

Greece 2014 , 4.5% coupon, yield 4.36%



The problem is to assess, beyond the critical situation of public finances, since the default risk is real or not because it would lead to the insolvency a state of weakness and uncertainty in all markets in the Eurozone with special financial and economic consequences that could result in a period of weakness in the single currency, as indeed, is beginning to be reported by the strengthening of the dollar:



Although we can not exclude the possibility of default regardless of a sovereign state to believe that Greece is unlikely to repeat what happened in Russia in 1998 and Argentina in 2001.

the European Union can hardly tolerate a further escalation of the crisis that would preclude scenarios already seen in 1992 when financial speculation led to the devaluation exit of the pound and the lira from the EMS for the simple reason that there is, by regulations, the possibility of leaving the euro: it follows that, were to drag on the state of Greece's difficulties, you may ultimately own the 'EU to acknowledge, albeit informal, of the solvency of the Hellenic Republic.

as a result we could see a stage, even prolonged weakness of the euro would encourage investment in other currencies.

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In terms of duration, that gold is the 'bubble' longest history in every civilization in human history gold has been assigned the role of representative par excellence of wealth, only after World War II, central banks, forced by events more by other considerations, have abandoned the so-called 'gold-bearing equal'.

in industry does not hold any gold, or however poor, benefit.
an alien who arrives on Earth, completely unaware of our customs and traditions, would be at least puzzled to see the effort that is claimed to extract a metal, all things considered of little use, from underground to store it in others 'holes' (the vault) in other places the same underground.

these paradoxes despite the demand for physical gold has increased so much so that in Germany it comes to install vending machines of ingots.
during the past few weeks, India has bought 200 tons of gold (half of what is put on sale) from the International Monetary Fund in order to diversify its foreign exchange reserves.

therefore inevitable that the surge in prices that peaked in absolute terms:



but not in real terms



we can formulate two hypotheses to explain this movement.

in the first case we consider that gold is the ultimate safe haven and a safe haven for many investors frightened by the fragility international economic and financial system, while the gold is, as always, excellent coverage to protect the purchasing power erosion of inflation.
but it is clear that at this time the rise in inflation is not a concern for markets: just see how the inflation rate achieved by comparing the implied yield spread between T-notes (fixed rate government bonds) and the TIPS (inflation-linked government bonds) of equal duration is perfectly aligned with the trend of recent years:




this apparent schizophrenia of the market (growth of a safe haven with no apparent Fears of rising inflation) may be explained by the expansion of a middle class sufficiently wealthy in emerging markets, causing a steady increase in demand for luxury goods, especially jewelry, which does not meet an adequate increase in productivity , because the world production, after reaching its peak at the beginning of the 2000s then began a slow but steady decline:



in conclusion, if the hypothesis that the increase in gold prices is caused by a rush to safe assets, then the recent top would be only temporary and intended to deflate the bubble in the near future.
unlike the dynamics of growing demand and contraction would certainly offer to attend a new high.

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EXPECTED RANGE FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER

A simple way to try to determine a range min / max within which it is expected that the prices will vary for a particular financial instrument is to correlate the price, volatility and time duration of the projection.

I then tried to develop this 'confidence interval' for some indices (especially those for which there is a volatility index regularly listed on the CBOE).

the result is a work in progress, in the sense that the back test was conducted on a very limited number of samples

then updates the expected range for the month of November on the major stock indexes.

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Likely expected range for the month of September 2009

A simple way to try to determine a range min / max within which it is expected that the prices will vary for a particular financial instrument is to correlate the price, volatility and time duration projection.

I then tried to develop this 'confidence interval' for some indices (especially those for which there is a volatility index regularly listed on the CBOE).

the result is a work in progress, in the sense that the back test was conducted on a very limited number of samples (nearly closures Monthly, 2009):

S & P 500 (ending August 2009 1020.68)

minimum: 944 maximum
: 1096

DOW JONES (ending August 2009 9496)

minimum: 8855 maximum
: 10,137

NASDAQ (Closing August 2009 2009.76)

minimum: 1852 maximum
: 2166

STOXX 50 (2412.02 closing in August 2009)

minimum: 2210 maximum
: 2613

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weekly market comment

STOCK MARKET

With positive locking of the week Last stock markets have continued the streak of four consecutive weeks of decline that, in fact, had cleared the progress made in the course the months of May and June. The increase (+6% MSCI World index in local currency) is encouraging because accompanied by an increase in trading volumes and price volatility, both indices of strength of the trend. breaking bearish readily recovered from the quotations may indeed be viewed as a 'false bearish signal': the board's operating last week that called for taking time and not liquidate existing positions pending further developments in spite of the courses had fallen below moving average reference is proving, at the time, correct.

a geographic continued outperformance of Asian markets versus the World although, at the level of weekly relative strength, the best stock indices turned out to be those of an emerging, possibly as a result of information relating to the possible availability of the IMF and World Bank to renegotiate the sovereign debt of some of these countries .

At this point, all the world stock indices are back in the mid-term bullish position, therefore address the trend in the course also provided advice to wait, to increase equity positions exceeding the long-term indicators (moving average to 200 seats )




Among individual titles hitting the unexpected vitality of FIAT (best title of the FTSE MIB, +16% per week) and Daimler (second best under the STOXX 50, +19% more on a weekly basis): new times for the automotive industry?
Apart from this it is interesting to note that, in a week when almost all the titles in the main list of European (STOXX 50) took home the best results are positive performance came from banking and pharmaceuticals.
Finally I note that, after weeks of relative strength than ANSALDO STS market begins to show signs of weakness and slow the race: also on the list Milan eyes on banking but also on Prysmian and Tenaris.


BOND MARKET

bond market and point out that rates on a monthly basis, are continuing to drive down returns for the quarterly government debt securities with at least triple-A credit quality.



From the graph it is evident that the yield on advances of a few weeks the quarterly Euribor: after the slight increase in April / May quarterly returns have begun to fall, a sign that the market expects short-tightening by ECB: for some time you should not be an increase in interest rates.

Some nervousness in the bond market, it also points to the fact that, year to date, the spread between the maturities of 10 and 2 years of non-government bonds has stopped rising.

RAW MATERIALS

The month of May and June was certainly characterized by soaring oil prices which, by $ 35 a barrel has come to exceed $ 70 and then fall back to around $ 60-65. As
have stressed the U.S. Energy Information Agency, taking into account stocks, consumption and forecast on the economic cycle, current prices deemed reasonable: do not exclude more speculative transactions in energy commodities, however, there are structural reasons and business being carried significant increases from current levels.

I would like to draw your attention to the metal, which in many cases, are taking bullish positions of considerable interest
could be the case of copper, which increase in prices is accompanied by a concomitant decrease in stocks (which should allow further increases of the commodity in question)

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comment July 13, 2009 Weekly Market Commentary

STOCK MARKET

the situation remains weak squares on the stock. The week just ended has seen widespread losses on MSCI indices with very few exceptions. Among the industrialized countries should be given the best performance in Australia and Hong Kong while the worst are Italy and Norway. Among the emerging countries is the best that Korea has the third consecutive week of increases.
In terms of force Koreano on the market is by far the best on a weekly and monthly on a quarterly basis the most interesting areas are China and India.

However you look, year to date the squares of the Pacific and Emerging Asia is the driving force on the list, proving that it is from this region that is dividing the world economy. On the macroeconomic front we can not fail to note that, for the first time, the Chinese car market has passed the U.S. is interesting because it had never happened before that a market economy is emerging as a major consumer impose consumer durables .

extremely delicate, however, the situation on Western financial markets: the major indexes, after breaking the resistance formed by the downward moving average of 50 sessions are struggling to come back to it. A fundamental recovery in no time at this level, otherwise we should take note that the downward pressure on the markets have taken over and, therefore, adjust our asset allocation.
Crucial will be the quarterly performance of major U.S. companies expected this week: for the moment the U.S. S & P 500 index is characterized by a lateral trading range accompanied by low volume and volatility in decline:







Operationally it is best to take a waiting position by freezing the positions in place: the market is clearly in a phase of uncertainty that may result to a new fall or to even further gains all depend on the profits that will be announced in the coming days. Among the titles included

nell'EuroStoxx50, the basket which collects the major Blue Chip of the old continent to point out the excellent performance in terms of relative strength and technological titles Telephone (Mobile and Ericsson in the lead), pharmaceuticals (the industry shows the relative strength index with more than excellence in Roche and AstraZeneca), especially to be kept under observation two major banks Europe: the English Banco Santander and BANCO BILBAO (BBVA) for months that are not only outperforming the sector index but also the general index. As for the FTSE
MIB, we confirm the report a few weeks ago in relation to Ansaldo STS.



BOND MARKET

Last week we dealt with the Corporate Bond, Investment Grade and High Yield that.
This week I would like to report an ETF listed on the Milan Stock Exchange that tracks the performance of government bonds indexed to inflation:


Again, the alert may be somewhat 'from the lows of late February / March when the same ETFs listed in a good 10% less, but I think there is still room for growth, particularly if the stroke of commodity prices should start force feeding expectations of higher inflation

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weekly markets in

Several indicators have suggested a probable retracement of the stock index, which occurred regularly during the past week: the MSCI World Index, representing the major stock exchanges of both industrialized and emerging countries, has seen an overall decrease of 3% thus eliminating the progress made in the during previous sessions of June.

The decrease in volatility and trading volume and the persistence of prices close to the long-term moving average but could have reason to suggest, if not exhausted, at least a weakening of the uptrend soon.
It is not unlikely to see further declines in the next few sessions that interest should be taken as a monthly close below the moving average would suggest a short-term relief allocation sull'azionario buoyancy.





In terms of individual markets are still emerging to achieve the best performance in terms of relative strength: India and China, in particular, driven by the positive prospects of growth of their economies.

Similar considerations apply to the Milan Stock Exchange, where the FTSE MIB levels reported in late April in area 19 000 points: the lack of diversification of securities held by the main basket (remember 40% energy and 40% financial) has influenced the 'Italian stock price in recent months.
At this time, however, preferred securities in terms of relative strength are Ansaldo STS and ENEL (this certainly affected by the recent capital increase and the detachment of a maxi-dividend).

In the field we have seen a rise in bond yields on all maturities of the curve sign that the market can estimate the end of the accommodative policy by central banks already from the year-end result with a touch-up of the official discount rate: it is possible that the positive news about the resumption of the economic cycle in Asia with a consequent increase in consumption of industrial raw materials and oil can generate for inflationary fears in the market.

But when my focus is not on the yields for each maturity but on the spread between the U.S. government bond maturing in 10 years and 2 years to maturity:




The extension of this differential suggests that investors demand a higher premium for investing in long maturities evaluating them potentially more risky, thus implicitly acknowledging that it had a positive outlook on the resumption of the economic cycle.
A return of this spread would be a confirmation of the signs of recovery provided by the U.S. Conference Board's leading indicators.

conclude with some remarks on the recent blaze in the oil price.
After a maximum of 2008 to the first $ 150 on the momentum of the forecasts for Goldman Sachs projected that the $ 200 a barrel and then a brutal and sudden drop in crude oil prices to nearly $ 35 we are seeing a strong rally reported quotes around the area of \u200b\u200b$ 70 a barrel.



of this rally have received some grants clearly heavily influenced by the price of oil as Russia, Norway, Brazil and Italy (where the ENI alone accounts for 18% of the FTSE MIB).
The experience of last year shows that it is not easy to forecast the evolution of prices of a class Assett thus subject to speculation as is oil.
In its report of June 2009, the U.S. Energy Information Agency as a driver sees a further rise in prices for the possibility that the economic recovery in Asia (with the consequent demand for energy and raw materials) may prove more robust than expected. Risks to
a reduction in prices is instead shown by the demand, and globally will contract further in 2009 and increased production capacity by OPEC member countries which, together with satisfactory existing stocks would be able to cope is the application of 2009 (which, as mentioned, is seen still falling) and than that of 2010 is expected to rise marginally.
The annual average prices for WTI should settle at $ 58.70 (2009) and $ 67.42 (2010).
In operational terms, we suggest caution in opening new positions on this arrangement class and evaluate the benefit of taking up positions already in the index

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[Information] Verichip

advertising which is spoken in the video is already on the screens of American television ... Here we must make a move: the pretext of the crisis (created on purpose) have already given full powers to the Federal Reserve (yeah, they also told the TG, flying on the subject - news of 30 seconds), creating 'bases for their long-awaited World Bank. Remember also that the Fed is not government but a private entity, of course. Then the Verichip, which are already implanting (experimental) ...



video created by: aotysday

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[Information] Film - El Contestant (sub ita)

harsh criticism of the financial system, not to be missed film.
The story of a person who wins a prize billionaire on TV, but who turned out to be that millionaire coast.
This film highlights the bureaucracy, and the flaws of the banking system.

film by Rodrigo Cortés, with Leonardo Sbaraglia, Chete Lera, Myriam Gallego y Luis Zaher.

PS: Unfortunately, the film is no longer available in Italian on Youtube has been censored. For those who understand English, can 'in English, however, find it on Youtube (strange that they have not censored in the Italian and English, the language of film, right? If they were copyright issues, which was to disappear was the first version original English ...).

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[Spirituality] Krishanmurti - The awakening of intelligence

E 'can be truly independent?

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["New" Science] Nikola Tesla - The Movie

The life of a great scientist "forgotten." The man, living at the turn of the nineteenth and twentieth century, it has enlightened the world with AC power and has made possible revolutionary inventions like the radio.

The Life of Nikola Tesla told in this film sheds light on the reality of science and society as a together. His arrival in the United States, his turbulent relationship with Thomas Edison and the one with JP Morgan.

's rise to fame and the inevitable descent into oblivion, Nikola Tesla and his life are a mirror of what is happening today in the world. The fate of the planet in the last century found itself at a crossroads: choosing between energy production "destructive" means the destruction of materials and clean and the creative freedom given by Tesla ... The choice is notorious to all.

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[information] Chemtrails

I state that I'm not very experienced of chemtrails, but public post because this is a topic worthy of relief. In fact, many of the trails you see in the sky are not natural. The aircraft contrails may issue, and this is normal. But contrails usually disappear after a few minutes. Chemtrails are persistent and instead be formed following unusual clouds. These chemtrails, which existence has been rehearsed, contain traces of barium, aluminum and silver, of course, very harmful to the body if precipitate (which still does not happen always, but often). Why are spreading these trails in the sky? Well, it's a question that I asked myself recently and preliminary investigations, taken the most idiotic things (which is not to say that is not possible, mind you), it turns out that silver provides an excellent shield against electromagnetic waves. Research by NASA has revealed that the sun has an activity that is illegal, which leaves a high risk be assumed in the coming years, an electrical storm caused the unlawful and intense solar activity. An electrical storm, the entity assumed by NASA would imply a total electromagnetic lock. This means that our car is stopped, the power plants would stop work, the plane began to fall for no apparent reason (do not remember anything? "), And so on. Now, a shield composed powder from silver and other metals would reduce the phenomenon in a consistent manner ... E 'hypothesis that chance, but it is likely that these chemtrails have to do with solar activity ... To investigate ;-)



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[Information] Speech John Kerry - Student taser and arrested

what happens to those who dare to ask questions ... Look at the faces of those who amused at the scene ... Nobody moves, only one person ...

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[Information] Alex Jones - Endgame (subtitled in Italian)

For those who ask what is the new world order and what are its mechanisms, this documentary provides much food for thought. To look at a meal ;-).

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[Spirituality] Dissolution - meditation on emptiness

Pointers for meditation.

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[Information] Aaron Russo - From Freedom to Fascism

This documentary denounces in no uncertain terms the great deception operated by the Federal Reserve and the entire tax system to the detriment of American citizens, starting from the early last century. All made without anyone noticing it ...

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[Information] Psychiatry: A ' Industry of Death

Psychiatry, so 'as the majority of psychological theories are simply false! Psychiatry is more deaths than wars. In your opinion, the diseases are described in the DSM? Have a scientific basis? No: the diseases to be included in the DSM are put to the vote! Here's the evidence.

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[Spirituality] Thoth - The Emerald Tablets of

Retrieved from 'introduction of Dr. Maurice Doreal:

The Tables translated in this text are ten and were left in the custody of the Great Pyramid priests of the Pyramid . The first ten Tables are divided for convenience in thirteen shares. The other two tables, the last, are so important and far-reaching in their significance when it was forbidden to reveal the contents to the world . However, in those contained herein, there are secrets that will prove true to their inestimable scholarly value. You must read them not once, but hundreds of times, because only then can be understood the true meaning of content. A casual reading will provide inspiration charming, but a more careful study of wisdom will open gates to the researcher.

The author, [Maurice Doreal NdT ] ( linked to the "Great White Lodge " working with the Priesthood of the Pyramid ), was instructed to recover and return the Great Pyramid the ancient tables. He performed his task as a result of various events are not described here. Before returning, he was given permission to translate and keep a copy of the wisdom engraved on the tables . This was in 1925 , and only recently was allowed to publish a part . It is expected that many in the discredit. Yet the true student will read between the lines and reach wisdom. If you is Light, the Light that is engraved in these tables will answer.

Dr. Maurice

Doreal

You can download the book here . As a precaution, I removed the last three tables. Those who are really interested, contact me via mail (see my profile and you will find my e-mail) stating the reasons for his interest and will 'to send them.

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[New Science] Kymatica

The new film by Ben Stewart, author of Esoteric Agenda. This film is made by an alternative group of anthropologists, psychologists and scientists who are not fully in line with mainstream science but use some information from which they draw a number of interesting conclusions and highly evocative and innovative. This video is composed of nine parts, take some time to see it and maybe review it and draw your own conclusions.

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[Spirituality] Krishnamurti - Religion and Institutions

After so many centuries
still want to be led? An old saying
can help,
St. Thomas did not believe it until we put your nose!
Mattes discussion as others take us back is the only way to get them to ourselves and to have respect for others and their experience. Investigate
without judging.

St. Thomas the Apostle is said to be the only one to have recognized the Risen Jesus.
He did not believe, but personally investigated as a condition to be recognized through direct experience!
called Judas Thomas Didymus Judas by Jesus in St. Thomas today quick.
Didymus equals twin in Aramaic, the same as Thomas
twin in greek.

Who can not recognize each other if the other who is like a state level?

Krishnamurti

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[History] The true story of the Egyptian people

A documentary that shows how serious our origins and our history is very different from how we teach them in school ...

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[New Science] Gregg Braden - Matrix Divina

Conference Gregg Braden held in Milan on 30/05/2007. Braden shows us what our beliefs are wrong according to the latest scientific discoveries. It also presents an interesting parallel between the new science and spirituality, showing how the old traditions such as Buddhism, Zen, Sufism, Essenes, etc. .. were already in possession of knowledge that science is discovering. If your inner life, your freedom and truth are topics that interest you I suggest you be patient and watch this lecture in full, you can really change your life and the perception of it.

This and other videos available on my youtube channel (youtube channel)

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Sell May and go away? Parliament to assess

MSCI WORLD stores the first week of June with a positive change of almost two percentage points, nothing shocking in itself but there are two things I would emphasize:

1) from the lows of March there were 10 closures a week-on-2 positive negative;

2) with the closing of 05 to 714 points on Friday, the MSCI World index adjusted for the second consecutive week the new peak since the beginning of 2009.

share was 700 fatal multiple times during the months of October and November, especially early in the year when, after a hint of a rebound from the lows of November, the market had stopped at 699 and then record new lows in February and March.



is now the market is likely to take a pause for reflection and I would not be surprised to see realized also important, especially because just above (about 750 points) passes the moving average 200 sessions a level which could include, at least temporarily, increases the financial markets

returning to the first week of June we find that Asian markets are still in the foreground, both in terms of percentage change (Indonesia and Thailand 10%, +5% Philippines, India 3%) and in terms Relative Strength (India, China, Shanghai and Hong Kong all in the company of two countries 'oil': Russia and Norway).

The economic recovery, now evident in the Pacific, has revived the demand for energy, therefore, to characterize the month of May was the blaze which affected the price of oil:



crude oil have moved in just over a month, from 45 to almost $ 70 a barrel and the increase in volatility (as evidenced by the enlargement of Bollinger bands) seems to indicate that the race is almost expired.
this increase could trigger inflationary currently not provided by central banks, the effects of which are protecting the financial markets through the purchase of precious metals:

is the case of gold, which is again affecting the maximum around $ 1,000 an ounce



or platinum in the uptrend seems to take effect:



in my opinion, both metals may be considered as an object of investment.

for equity markets, while the price movement continues to suggest a continuation of the uptrend assessments and other indicators suggest some caution.
one hand, the positive signals coming from:

1) the gradual recovery in prices of corporate bonds, a sign that the financial community sees a positive expectations of default;
2) is the index CRB commodity is the Baltic Dry Index will continue the upward trend
3) assessments of the S & P 500, based on P / E of Shiller, indicate quotations undoubtedly attractive in relation to the average of the last 20 years

down ' other aspects of caution:

1) reduction in volatility and volume, indicating a possible exhaustion, or at least slow, the current trend
2) the spread between yields on U.S. government bonds to 10 years and remains at 2 years 'on call': symptom that financial markets expect further confirmation regarding the economic recovery, especially investors want to get some light on what the consequences of the massive government interventions to support the economy

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1: Analysis P/E10

Usually we tend to assess the market based on multiple, more or less common. the most immediate and popular is definitely the P / E, or the price (of a share, index, etc ...) divided the profits.
commonly considered to express, with this figure, how many years are necessary because an investment is paid off through the profits made by companies in which it invests. Technically it comes to discounting future cash flows, and so on.
I do not like, for one simple reason.
as it is not easy to estimate the future profitability of a company (or index, as in our case) and often the forecasts of analysts are also constrained by factors not strictly economic or financial one tends to use the so-called 'retained earnings' (as Reported earnings) over the last twelve months.
at this point the P / E expresses the ratio between the current price and the gains already made: a contradiction if we are convinced that in reality the market discounts the expected future returns.
also in times of particular volatility is the market is earnings this report may be particularly ineffective: for example, the S & P 500 ended 2008 at 903 points, with the loss of $ 23 per share for the fourth quarter's total profits for 2008 were $ 14.88 per share: this implies a P / E above 60!
early as 1934 one of the main proponents of value investing, Benjamin Graham, had proposed to use instead of the simple 'as Reported earnings' of the last twelve months, an average of real earnings (that is actually achieved and adjusted for inflation) over the last ten years.
this approach, which was later taken over and relaunched in recent years, Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller, an estimate more consistent on the state of assessing the market.
just to give you an idea, at the close of the first quarter of 2009 P/E10 so determined gave a value of 15.6 to be compared with an average history of 16.1.



this chart, as well as an indication that the market in this period is not particularly convenient, suggests quite explicitly the strong correlation between growth in the S & P500 and increased P/E10. among other things, we can verify that, whenever the P/E10 increased from the first quintile (ie a ratio greater than 20) in the fourth quintile (between 10.9 and 14.1) then inevitably has continued down to the fifth quintile (less than 10.9).
on this point has also built a solid starting point for hikes and long-term returns in triple digit:



Now, to get a P/E10 less than 10.9 (or possibly a single digit) need two things, either individually or combined together:

1) a fall in prices of the index (and in this case could not be fetched review the S & P 500 to trade at the 600 points)
2) a substantial increase in profits, given the current state of the economy, I think, unfortunately, the less likely hypothesis

Max Number Of Channels= 2 Hdmi

March 2009

The Obama administration is distinguished by choices courageous and innovative which is trying to change the face of an America deeply marked by two terms of Bush junior.
It 'funny that, of all the initiatives so far introduced in the social, political, economic, just one that has fewer new elements have been such a broad consensus on financial markets, conceded that the rally that has lifted global stock markets these days is due to the new support plan for the banking system.

Apparently the new plan follows Geithner fairly faithful to the spirit of the earlier proposed TARP, in the days of the failure of Lehman Brothers bank, the then Treasury Secretary Paulson.
This plan aimed to reduce the budgets of the rickety U.S. banks of toxic assets linked to real estate that were terribly illiquid then by massive state intervention. The approval by the laborious U.S. House and Senate had been followed by a resounding rejection by the financial markets.
Like its predecessor, Geithner also appear to care about the urgent need to clean up the balance sheets of banks by securities that will be detected by a complex mechanism of auctions and guarantees to private investors who may participate.
The proposal still has blind spots and gaps are such that it is difficult to think that it was welcomed by financial markets with the best seat in the last five months.

In these days also come from the real timid signs of recovery: the data on sales of existing homes is also better than expected and the manufacturing front, there are signs that the situation has at least stopped getting worse.
This, combined with a very technical situation objectively has certainly helped the recovery in prices. The problem now is to see if it was the umpteenth corrective rally added to an underlying trend is still negative, or we are witnessing a reversal of the trend that should satisfy the outset.

Looking at the weekly chart of the S & P 500 Index shows that prices are part of a large downward channel rather obvious: at first glance it would seem, therefore, that we are in the presence of a corrective rally is indeed relevant in terms persistence and percentages, but may have to give way to a back drop in prices.



However we can not detect that the market actually is at a crossroads: the moving average of 50 sessions (the red line in graph), which traditionally represents the medium-term trend has been interested in closing the weekly. This level represented, since September 2008, the upper limit of the bear market: a barrier against which so far have broken the recovery efforts and has rejected the prices to lower levels (in September 2008 and January 2009).
The next sessions will then be crucial: if in closing week you should see a consolidation of prices above this average, then take The hypothesis that the downward cycle has finished and should begin to accommodate the likely increase in the market.

However, the situation is still dominated by uncertainty and nervousness: it shows the level of volatility that continues to be stationed at extreme levels, certainly typical of the final stages of a bear market but still too high to be considered safe from nasty surprises.
As can be seen from the graph below, readings of particularly high volatility relative to the value of the stock exchange, have always been the prelude to a lasting and significant increases even though as has already happened in 2002, may need further consolidation in prices before the final restart.



THE DRAGON FLY has resumed

In a situation considerably more favorable instead are the Asian markets, especially the Chinese prefer to be sure that Taiwan is experiencing a particularly favorable, but also Shanghai and Hong Kong seem to have taken the path of higher sustainable.



At this point one might wonder what can be expected by financial markets.
In a previous intervention had particularly stressed the relationship favorable price and future profits.
Given that profits grow at an average annual rate of 6% from one peak to another of the business cycle the market today expresses a moderate underestimation compared to current earnings, but offers attractive returns for the years to come: taking into account precisely the real rate earnings and assuming a price-earnings ratio of between 10 (extreme understatement) and 20 (extreme overvaluation) an investor 'box' (buy and hold) who decides to buy shares today could expect from his investment, a return to average 10-11% per annum over the next decade.
this, however in the presence of a recovery in corporate earnings growth and, personally, I agree with the hypothesis of those who say that we will have to wait before this event will occur because:

1. in recent years most of the gains have been achieved thanks to non-industrial and financial logic, the credit crisis and the least leveraged by companies and banks will surely lead to a significant reduction (if not reset) this component of income;
2. the struggle to maintain market shares (or win new ones) will probably be conducted at the expense of operating margin and therefore profit, because production costs have already been cut to the bone (especially at the expense of workers) will necessary to reduce the selling prices of goods produced at the expense of profitability.

We can therefore say that the markets are laying the foundation needed to give rise to a change in the underlying trend, also the prices are generally attractive or otherwise to justify expectations of returns are acceptable, given the risk, lack of market equity.
To assist however in a final reversal, or at least long-lasting, must be confirmed by larger especially the economic front:

the market has welcomed a given that the U.S. GDP is less severe than expected but still indicates a contraction, on an annual basis by 6.3%



also observe the data on corporate profits that is literally fell apart during the fourth quarter of 2008



the overall figure shows a decline of profits by 16.5% during the quarter (-21.5 % yoy), the largest contributor to this decline comes from finance companies (-59% and - 66% on a quarterly and yearly) and, although it is lower (-10% -9% on a quarterly and annual basis) does also reflect the drop in earnings of non-financial sectors in the achievements despite oil prices have more than halved.