Several indicators have suggested a probable retracement of the stock index, which occurred regularly during the past week: the MSCI World Index, representing the major stock exchanges of both industrialized and emerging countries, has seen an overall decrease of 3% thus eliminating the progress made in the during previous sessions of June.
The decrease in volatility and trading volume and the persistence of prices close to the long-term moving average but could have reason to suggest, if not exhausted, at least a weakening of the uptrend soon.
It is not unlikely to see further declines in the next few sessions that interest should be taken as a monthly close below the moving average would suggest a short-term relief allocation sull'azionario buoyancy.
In terms of individual markets are still emerging to achieve the best performance in terms of relative strength: India and China, in particular, driven by the positive prospects of growth of their economies.
Similar considerations apply to the Milan Stock Exchange, where the FTSE MIB levels reported in late April in area 19 000 points: the lack of diversification of securities held by the main basket (remember 40% energy and 40% financial) has influenced the 'Italian stock price in recent months.
At this time, however, preferred securities in terms of relative strength are Ansaldo STS and ENEL (this certainly affected by the recent capital increase and the detachment of a maxi-dividend).
In the field we have seen a rise in bond yields on all maturities of the curve sign that the market can estimate the end of the accommodative policy by central banks already from the year-end result with a touch-up of the official discount rate: it is possible that the positive news about the resumption of the economic cycle in Asia with a consequent increase in consumption of industrial raw materials and oil can generate for inflationary fears in the market.
But when my focus is not on the yields for each maturity but on the spread between the U.S. government bond maturing in 10 years and 2 years to maturity:
The extension of this differential suggests that investors demand a higher premium for investing in long maturities evaluating them potentially more risky, thus implicitly acknowledging that it had a positive outlook on the resumption of the economic cycle.
A return of this spread would be a confirmation of the signs of recovery provided by the U.S. Conference Board's leading indicators.
conclude with some remarks on the recent blaze in the oil price.
After a maximum of 2008 to the first $ 150 on the momentum of the forecasts for Goldman Sachs projected that the $ 200 a barrel and then a brutal and sudden drop in crude oil prices to nearly $ 35 we are seeing a strong rally reported quotes around the area of \u200b\u200b$ 70 a barrel.
of this rally have received some grants clearly heavily influenced by the price of oil as Russia, Norway, Brazil and Italy (where the ENI alone accounts for 18% of the FTSE MIB).
The experience of last year shows that it is not easy to forecast the evolution of prices of a class Assett thus subject to speculation as is oil.
In its report of June 2009, the U.S. Energy Information Agency as a driver sees a further rise in prices for the possibility that the economic recovery in Asia (with the consequent demand for energy and raw materials) may prove more robust than expected. Risks to
a reduction in prices is instead shown by the demand, and globally will contract further in 2009 and increased production capacity by OPEC member countries which, together with satisfactory existing stocks would be able to cope is the application of 2009 (which, as mentioned, is seen still falling) and than that of 2010 is expected to rise marginally.
The annual average prices for WTI should settle at $ 58.70 (2009) and $ 67.42 (2010).
In operational terms, we suggest caution in opening new positions on this arrangement class and evaluate the benefit of taking up positions already in the index
