In terms of duration, that gold is the 'bubble' longest history in every civilization in human history gold has been assigned the role of representative par excellence of wealth, only after World War II, central banks, forced by events more by other considerations, have abandoned the so-called 'gold-bearing equal'.
in industry does not hold any gold, or however poor, benefit.
an alien who arrives on Earth, completely unaware of our customs and traditions, would be at least puzzled to see the effort that is claimed to extract a metal, all things considered of little use, from underground to store it in others 'holes' (the vault) in other places the same underground.
these paradoxes despite the demand for physical gold has increased so much so that in Germany it comes to install vending machines of ingots.
during the past few weeks, India has bought 200 tons of gold (half of what is put on sale) from the International Monetary Fund in order to diversify its foreign exchange reserves.
therefore inevitable that the surge in prices that peaked in absolute terms:
but not in real terms
we can formulate two hypotheses to explain this movement.
in the first case we consider that gold is the ultimate safe haven and a safe haven for many investors frightened by the fragility international economic and financial system, while the gold is, as always, excellent coverage to protect the purchasing power erosion of inflation.
but it is clear that at this time the rise in inflation is not a concern for markets: just see how the inflation rate achieved by comparing the implied yield spread between T-notes (fixed rate government bonds) and the TIPS (inflation-linked government bonds) of equal duration is perfectly aligned with the trend of recent years:
this apparent schizophrenia of the market (growth of a safe haven with no apparent Fears of rising inflation) may be explained by the expansion of a middle class sufficiently wealthy in emerging markets, causing a steady increase in demand for luxury goods, especially jewelry, which does not meet an adequate increase in productivity , because the world production, after reaching its peak at the beginning of the 2000s then began a slow but steady decline:
in conclusion, if the hypothesis that the increase in gold prices is caused by a rush to safe assets, then the recent top would be only temporary and intended to deflate the bubble in the near future.
unlike the dynamics of growing demand and contraction would certainly offer to attend a new high.
