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new highs

the eve of the 'earnings season' for the first quarter of 2010 (Alcoa, which traditionally opens tonight at the markets closed, the announcements of listed companies of the S & P 500) stock markets recorded new highs.



all the MSCI indices, with the exception of Greece remain bullish setting.
hours, it is most likely to see a decline in prices over the next few weeks, and during 2009, the opening the 'earnings season' has been marked by a decline in the S & P 500 between 6% and 10%.
but I believe that in this case we can take advantage of these corrections as buying opportunities.

in support of these considerations is the analysis of the spread between corporate bonds and ten-year government bonds continues to shrink, indicating a positive attitude towards the market Assett risky.

meanwhile continues to widen the spread between ten-year yields tbond (now close to 4%) and the Bund (closer to 3%), while the U.S. government bond yield rose over the two years' 1% passing the same German title



the light of these considerations, I consider that a dollar exposure may still be profitable for some time, while I prefer the United States, where signs of economic recovery are more evident to the markets' Euro area is still too vulnerable to PIGS

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'market timing' or 'time in the market'?

The long-standing debate between proponents of 'buy and hold' (ie those who believe it is important not so much the moment you enter the market but the duration of the investment) and supporters of active management (with then need to properly identify the so-called market timing) is not going to be never completely finished, probably because neither of these strategies is the best.

As some analysts try to prove, as the market environment in which investment proceeds help to estimate the potential expected returns and, therefore, adopt the strategy that is considered best

John Hussman (www.hussmanfunds.com) has developed a method to estimate the expected returns in 10 years on the S & P 500 based on its evaluation of the P / E index, which refers to profits generated in coincidence with the peak of the economic cycle. according to this method, an investor 'buy' the market can now expect, reasonably, an annual return of just over 5% over a time horizon 10 years (total return performance, ie including dividends)



A similar attempt to estimate the expected returns for an investor 'passive' based on P / E is suggested by Shiller blog www.investmentpostcards.com .
in this case it cites a study, subdividing the ten-year returns based on P / E of the market at the time of investment, clearly shows that the years with P / E have achieved the lowest yield (total return) more interesting :



similar analysis was carried out based on the Dividend Yield (or the dividend paid on shares index):



We can conclude that if the strategy 'buy and hold' can still yield important investments are characterized by very favorable market valuations (low P / E Dividend Yield and low) that the investor will enter the market constancy of unfavorable evaluations (P / E Dividend Yield above average and unattractive) certainly will draw greater benefits from more active management of its buoyancy.

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Possible fix coming?

Many analysts emphasize the state of extreme overbought stock market is considered unsustainable for a long time, thus facing a future as imminent correction.
repropose this table (source: Bespoke) that reports on what occasions the market has risen to over forty sessions sessions without suffering a correction of at least one percentage point and the magnitude of subsequent adjustments before recording an increase of at least one percentage point:



as you can see, apart from a couple of occasions, the market has never gone beyond the fifty consecutive meetings without a drop of particular importance, we can therefore be considered statistically correct prediction of a drop in prices in the coming sessions although it is difficult predict the magnitude and duration.

personally would prefer a basic approach still bullish and the trend narrowing of spreads between corporate bonds (BAA rating) and ten-year U.S. supports the hypothesis that the stock market can still grow this



in this case, any correction should be seen as an opportunity to increase positions in

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range expected for the month of April 2010

Updating the values \u200b\u200bby which I expect prices will fluctuate during the month of April: